The author, Peter Man, shares his personal experiences, secret thoughts, and outlandish ideas on the multifarious subjects he is interested in, which is practically everything under the sun, as well as beyond the solar system to infinity. Be sure to comment if you wish to learn more, especially about the mysteries of the trilogy.
AuthorBorn and bred in Hong Kong and educated by a Catholic English school, the author immigrated to Canada and established Canada’s first national Chinese language television station. He later worked in China in the broadcast and telecommunications technologies industry for many years, experiencing that country’s meteoric rise. Archives
October 2022
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[Peter Man] A housewife calls her husband who is driving home from work. "Honey, be careful on your way home. There is breaking news about a madman driving down the highway in the opposite direction." Over the phone, the husband cries in exasperation, "A madman? Are they reporting only one madman? Jesus Christ, God Almighty! Are these reporters blind? Everyone is driving in the opposite direction!"
I recently learned from Guangzhou friends that, in 1979, about 300,000 mainlanders smuggled themselves into Hong Kong, mostly by swimming. In that same year, my friend, Justin Lin, was the one and only Taiwanese to have swum in the opposite direction to the mainland. Who is this madman? I wrote a message to Professor Lin on September 30. I'll share it below: [Start of message] Dear Prof. Lin, I recently came upon a David Goldman speech at the second National Conservatism Conference on November 1, 2021. That was shortly after the publication of your book on China's Economy. He mentioned you and your ideas at about 5 min. 50 sec. into the speech. Goldman, whom I have followed for over two decades (but he does not put up links to his speeches, so we're at the mercy of YouTube algorithms), can be best characterized as a paleo-conservative with a libertarian bent, who is also a realist, and, therefore, he will occasionally come up with some truths about China that are at odds with the ongoing mainstream narratives. It's quite refreshing sometimes to hear truths in places that are inundated with lies. I have transcribed the particular segment of interest below: [Goldman]: "The people running Chinese economic policies are people I know because I worked with them on Wall Street. They're U.S. educated, thoroughly modern technocrats with ambition the size of Mount Everest. One of them is a fellow named Yifu Lin. He was chief economist of the World Bank. He's got a PhD from the University of Chicago. He just wrote a book about why China is going to lead the fourth industrial revolution, the same position against America that America was against England in the 19th century. England had all the technology. Thomas Edison did not invent the light bulb, Joseph Swan, a British physician did. Edison stole it, got sued, and paid a gigantic settlement. What Edison did was create an industrial scale laboratory, which went through five thousand materials until he found the filament that would make it last ten times longer than Swan's and made it commercially viable. Andrew Carnegie made more steel than anyone in the world. He didn't invent the Bessemer process, Joseph (sic) Bessemer (he was thinking about Joseph Swan, but it should be Henry Bessemer) did. England had all the technology. America either borrowed it, bought it or stole it, and had the entrepreneurs and logistics to realize it in depth, and that is how China sees itself against the United States. "Yifu Lin says, 'They're going to try to suppress us; they don't want us to rise just the way England tried to suppress Germany and the US. But look at our human capital.' Human capital is what drives technology. China is producing seven times as many engineers as we are per year, three times as many STEM PhDs; they have 1.4 billion people. Yes, it's true that Chinese culture tends to produce conformism, but with that many people, you do have a lot of brilliant innovators in absolute terms. So that's what we're up against..." [end of Goldman quote] [Peter Man message] I have stopped commenting about Taiwan completely. Everyone repeats the same old narrative of China attacking Taiwan and reacting to US activities that are totally predictable. The two articles I wrote about Taiwan in August and Oct of 2020 which also predicted the Trump insurrection were based on simply looking for facts beneath the lies. I did not have any privileged information. Almost every prediction came about, including Biden's redoubled attack on China and stepping over the Taiwan red line. Hopefully, China will not make Putin's mistake of hoping the US will allow it to have a peaceful rise, and eventually being forced to take action not at a time, location and method of its choice. I had posted those articles on Quora but they were pulled down within seconds. So very few people actually read those articles. Luckily you did, and your later comments on my little thesis on economics gave me the confidence to verbalize some of my crazy ideas. While the West continues to flood themselves with self-delusional lies that their empty capitalism based on an empty promise equates a great economy because the numbers look great, China creates real wealth that improves people's lives. China must, of course, be able to defend what it has gained. While there is not much I can do to help in the China Renaissance, I'm very happy to see that the country is being run by capable and responsible people; not only those whom we see on public media every day, but many who have worked and continue to work tirelessly behind the scenes toward that common goal. I'm lucky to have known a few people like that when I lived and worked in China (such as Sidney Rittenberg and Yang Qianli, both were personal friends, and I visited Yang at 301 Hospital before returning to Canada for family reasons. He passed about a year later). I count myself very lucky also to have made the acquaintance with you. By the way, happy National Day! I truly believe that Taiwan will be a part of the China Renaissance sooner than later, and with little fuss. The method and means are mostly in place; all we need is the wisdom. I don't have any privileged information, but I like to make crazy predictions. Let's hope this one comes through. Maybe we can meet in Taiwan. [End of message] Prof. Lin promptly replied: Dear Peter, I am most delighted to receive your message on the National Day. Thank you for sharing the link to David Goldman's speech and transcribing the particular segment with reference to me. I know David and correspond with him once in a while. Attached for your interest please find the reflection of my life at 70. (PM Note: Justin Lin's birthday is Oct. 15, 1952) The following is Prof. Lin's original article in Chinese. I have translated it into English which he read, amended and approved. He explains in this article why he decided to swim in the opposite direction. 七十感言:我幸运地生活在一个充满希望和机遇的民族复兴时代 林毅夫 1952年我出生于地处台湾东北角,三面环山,一面临海,风景秀丽,民风淳朴的宜兰。小时候的台湾刚摆脱日本的殖民统治不久,百废待兴,经济上和一海之隔的祖国大陆一样贫穷落后,上小学时我用的书包是哥哥姐姐用过留下来补了又补的旧帆布包。孩时的回忆总是美好,和别人家的孩子一样调皮的我喜欢到处逛庙会,看歌仔戏,读漫画书,大一点时着迷于《西游记》《水浒传》《三国演义》等经典名著。历史是我的最爱,初中时就已经读了黎东方的《细说中国历史丛书》,也看了蔡东藩的《中国历朝通俗演义》。年少时看似漫无目的的涉猎让我不知不觉认识到在中华民族的历史长河中,每当国家面临生死存亡之秋,总有志士仁人,不惜毁家纾国,抛头颅、洒热血,牺牲自己来挽救国家,这些故事的浸染萌发了我为民族的复兴奉献一己之力的初衷。 1971年我考上台湾大学,并当选为大一学生会主席,入校时恰逢保卫钓鱼岛运动方兴未艾,钓鱼岛列岛历来是中国的领土,在日本占领台湾时,钓鱼岛列岛归我的家乡宜兰管辖。1970年美国政府宣布将于隔年把二战后托管的钓鱼岛列岛和冲绳一并“归还”日本,为此海外台湾留学生群情激奋,掀起了声势浩大的保卫钓鱼岛运动,我进入台湾大学时,作为学生会主席不时参与集会声讨美国、日本。接着于当年10月联合国以压倒多数的票数通过决议恢复了中华人民共和国在联合国的席位,台湾人民甚为迷茫,在风雨飘摇之感弥漫台湾社会之际,坐而言不如起而行,我从台湾大学转学陆军官校,希望能够力挽狂澜尽一名青年应有的责任。 在陆军官校学习的四年,我有更多的时间思考中华民族的未来。逐渐地我认识到美国不顾钓鱼岛主权归属中国的历史事实,把托管的钓鱼岛移交给日本,本质上与一战后巴黎和会上列强把战败的德国在青岛的租界不是归还给作为战胜国之一的中国而是移交给另外一个列强日本如出一辙。这个认识让我幡然醒悟,民族不复兴,人为刀俎我为鱼肉的民族命运就不能改变。当年偏安一隅,人口1700万的台湾在国民党的统治下,虽然在经济上可以红红火火,成为值得骄傲的亚洲四小龙之一,可是对攸关自己国家的领土和民族尊严的大事却毫无话语权和影响力可言,在以政治利益和军事实力为博弈准则的国际格局面前,中华民族的复兴只能有赖于10亿人口的祖国大陆的全面发展和强大,而且,大陆的发展不仅可以给台湾人民进一步的发展提供更为广阔的空间,也会让台湾终于可以摆脱百多年来作为低人一等的殖民地或作为棋子任列强摆布的命运。 1975年陆军官校毕业,我留校担任学生连队的排长,次年考上台湾最难考的政治大学企业管理研究所,两年硕士学业完成,1978年回到部队,随军移防金门,担任距离大陆最近的马山连连长。那时,每当于晨曦薄雾和落日余晖之时隔着一弯浅浅的海峡眺望对岸宁静幽远有如宋人山水画的南太武美景,我的心潮总是如脚下岸边的潮水般来回激荡,我是应该留在台湾作为一名明星式的精英追求顺风顺水的个人仕途,还是应该听从内心的召唤,回到未曾踏足,仍处贫穷落后的祖国大陆为其发展添砖加瓦?从小对自己的期许,让我选择了后者。 中国知识分子历来以国家兴亡为己任,1840年鸦片战争以后,在我之前已经有5代为复兴民族而努力的知识分子,包括曾国藩、李鸿章、张之洞等推动洋务运动的第一代,康有为、梁启超、谭嗣同等推动戊戌变法和孙中山、黄兴、宋教仁等推动民主革命的第二代,陈独秀、李大钊、胡适等推动新文化和五四运动的第三代,五四运动以后进入大学毕业后参加北伐、抗战和社会主义革命的第四代,以及1949年以后进入大学毕业后参加社会主义建设的第五代。他们作为知识精英为了民族的复兴都付出了不愧于后人的血与泪的努力,但是,以经济基础来衡量,中国在国际上的地位依然不断下滑,民族的复兴仍然是一个遥不可及的梦。 相比于鸦片战争以来的前面5代知识分子而言我是幸运的,1978年的改革开放以后,我国迎来了连续四十多年的快速增长,现在我国比历史上任何时期都更接近民族的伟大复兴,我1979年回归祖国恰逢其时,目睹也参与了这场人类历史上的经济增长奇迹。时代的需要让我有机会于1994年和几位志同道合的朋友在北京大学成立中国经济研究中心(现为国家发展研究院),带动了我国经济学教育的现代化,研究的本土化、规范化、国际化,并开启了学术研究和政策研究相结合的风气,成为国家的高端智库之一。我个人也因此水涨船高,得以在2008年出任被称为世界上经济学家最高职位、历来只有美欧著名经济学家才有资格担任的世界银行高级副行长兼主管发展政策的首席经济学家。世界银行工作时切身体验到的中国的蓬勃发展和其他亚非拉发展中国家在西方主流理论指导下一直未能摆脱贫困或中等收入陷阱的强烈对比,让我有底气挣脱发展中国家知识精英普遍存在的“西天取经”的思维范式,在世界银行工作结束后回到北京大学创立了新结构经济学研究院,推动总结自我国发展经验的新结构经济学理论体系的自主创新。基于中国改革发展经验的研究成果也让我登上了英国剑桥大学年度马歇尔经济学讲座和美国耶鲁大学年度库兹内茨经济学讲座的世界顶级学术平台,并获得了欧美港澳等海外10所大学的荣誉博士学位,成为首位获选为发展中国家科学院(原第三世界科学院)院士和英国科学院外籍院士的中国经济学者,尤其在改革开放四十周年时我荣幸地以改革理论的探索者成为获得中共中央国务院颁授改革先锋称号和奖章的百人之一。 一个人成就一件事,要有“天时、地利、人和”,祖国的欣欣向荣给了我们这代人许许多多成就个人梦想的“天时”,生长生活在改革开放的祖国大陆则给了我们做出一番事业的“地利”,当然“人和”也是不可或缺的重要因素。在台湾时父母兄姐为供我读书节衣缩食,许多老师、长官对我勉励有加,回到祖国大陆以后不管是在北大读书,到美国求学,学成后回到祖国工作,也总有许多师长、领导照顾我的生活,为我的工作创造条件,以及一群相知相契直谅多闻的朋友、筚路蓝缕同甘共苦的同事、少年英俊奋发向上的学生相互提携砥砺前行,更有关山万里一路相伴相随无怨无悔的妻子和一对子女。 回首往事,从为赋新词强说愁的少年,到如今我也已经到了随心所欲而不逾矩之年。两岸人生一路走来所幸波涛不惊,若有所成要感谢的人很多,有不少有恩于我的幼时亲长前辈已经只能来生再谢,也有些知交仍处两岸相隔未能促膝相谈把酒言欢,这些遗憾只能以四十三年犹未忘者乡音、故情、少年志的寸心来表白。瞻望前路,在百年未有之大变局的世界新格局中当以不知老之将至以及春蚕到死丝方尽来勉励自己,为民族复兴大业的最终完成继续竭尽所能以回报在我成长的过程中关心我、照顾我、鼓励我、支持我的众多亲长、老师、朋友。 Reflections of My Life at Age Seventy: I am fortunate to be living in an era of national rejuvenation full of hope and opportunities Justin Yifu Lin I was born in 1952 in Yilan, located at the northeastern corner of Taiwan. Yilan is protected by mountains on three sides and faces the Pacific Ocean on the other. It is blessed with the beauty of nature and populated by simple-living folks. When I was young, Taiwan had only been freed from Japanese colonial rule for not too long and we needed a lot of rebuilding. Our economy at that time was as under-developed as our motherland across the Taiwan Strait. I remember when I was in elementary school, my canvas schoolbag was a hand-me-down from my elder brother and sister that had been patched and re-patched over and over again. Despite those difficult times, I have a lot of fond childhood memories. Just like most other kids in those days, I loved to visit temple fairs, watch free Taiwanese operas offered during private celebrations and public festivals and read the latest comics. When I was a little older, I became fascinated by Chinese classics such as Journey to the West, Water Margin, and Romance of the Three Kingdoms. History was one of my most favorite subjects at school. By the time I was attending junior high, I had already read Li Dongfang’s Detailed Chinese History series and Cai Dongfan’s Popular Romance of the Chinese Dynasties. This seemingly aimless dabbling in historical tales during my youth inadvertently awakened me to the fact that, all through the long and winding river of Chinese history, whenever the country faces mortal dangers, there are always people with lofty ideals who will not hesitate to give up their family, bleed themselves dry and even lose their heads, selflessly sacrificing themselves in order to save the country. Influenced by these heroic tales, ideas began to germinate in my mind of wanting to contribute toward China's rejuvenation. In 1971, I was admitted to Taiwan University and was elected president of the Freshman Student Union. At the time, the movement to defend the Diaoyu Islands was at its peak. The Diaoyu Islands have always been Chinese territory. When Japan occupied Taiwan, the Diaoyu Islands were under the jurisdiction of my hometown, Yilan. In 1970, the U.S. government unilaterally dictated that it would “return” the Diaoyu Islands and Okinawa, which were administered by the U.S. after World War II, to Japan in the following year. This caused great consternation and agitation among overseas Taiwanese students, and they launched a huge movement to defend the Diaoyu Islands. As the president of the student union, I participated in rallies from time to time to denounce the United States and Japan. Then, in October of 1971, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution (Res. 2758) with an overwhelming majority of votes to restore the People's Republic of China's seat representing China in the United Nations. People in Taiwan were at a loss as to their place in the world. During this period when uncertainty pervaded the society in Taiwan, I believed that action would speak louder than words. Therefore, I transferred from Taiwan University to the Military Academy, hoping to fulfill my responsibilities as a young man and help Taiwan turn back the tide. During my four years of education at the Military Academy, I had more time to think about the future of China. I realized gradually that the United States’ total disregard of the historical fact that sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands belonged to China, and its decision to hand the islands to Japan instead, was very similar to what the great powers did at the Paris Peace Conference after World War I. They did not return Qingdao and the Shandong concessions of the defeated Germany to China, an ally of the victorious nations, but handed it over to another colonial power, Japan, instead. This awakening helped me understand that if China did not regain its strength, its fate as meat on the chopping board for more powerful nations would not change. Back then, Taiwan, with a population of seventeen million living in relative peace in that corner of the world, thrived economically under the rule of Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) as one of the four Asian Tigers. It was an achievement Taiwanese people could be proud of. They had, however, no influence or even the right to speak in defense of their own country’s territorial integrity and national dignity. In the face of an international order based on geopolitical interests and military strength, the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation can only depend on the all-round development and the overall strengthening of the motherland with its population of one billion. In addition, the development of the mainland would not only provide more opportunities for the Taiwanese people, but it would allow Taiwan, after existing for more than a century at the mercy of foreign powers, to finally shed its fate of either being a colony or a pawn. After graduating from the Military Academy in 1975, I stayed on at the school as a platoon leader of the Cadets Company. The next year, I was admitted into the MBA program of Taiwan’s Chengchi University, having passed one of the hardest admittance exams for a university in Taiwan. I successfully completed my Master’s degree after two years, returned to the army in 1978, and was deployed to Kinmen to serve as the commander of the Mashan Company, which was posted closest to the mainland. In those days, whenever I looked across the shallow strait through the morning mist and in the twilight of the setting sun, gazing at the tranquil and serene beauty of Nantaiwu (south Taiwu mountain of Fujian, sister peak of Kinmen’s north Taiwu mountain), which reminded me of a Song dynasty landscape painting, my heart always surged back and forth like the tides under my feet. Should I stay in Taiwan as a glorified member of the elite to pursue a smooth personal career, or should I listen to the voices in my own heart, and return to a motherland on which I had never set foot, and which was still poor and backward, to contribute to its development? My aspirations since childhood made me choose the latter. Chinese intellectuals have always taken personal responsibility for the rise and fall of the country. Following the First Opium War in 1840, five generations of Chinese intellectuals have strived tirelessly for the revival of the nation. The first generation included Zeng Guofan, Li Hongzhang, Zhang Zhidong and others who promoted the Westernization Movement. For the second generation, there were Kang Youwei, Liang Qichao, Tan Sitong and others who participated in the Hundred Days’ Reform of 1898, as well as Dr. Sun Yat-sen, Huang Xing and Song Jiaoren, with many others who kick-started democratic revolution in China. Chen Duxiu, Li Dazhao, Hu Shih and other third-generation intellectuals promoted New Culture Movement and the May Fourth Movement. The fourth generation graduated from university after the May Fourth Movement and participated in the Northern Expedition, the War of Resistance of Japanese occupation and the Socialist Revolution. Finally, the fifth-generation intellectuals were those who graduated from university after 1949 and participated in the socialist construction of China. As intellectuals, all of them have paid their dues in blood and tears for the rejuvenation of China. Their efforts are worthy of gratitude and respect in posterity. By economic standards, however, China’s international standing was in decline, and its national rejuvenation was still a distant and unattainable dream. I consider myself lucky in comparison to the previous five generations of intellectuals since the First Opium War. After the reform and opening up in 1978, China has ushered in rapid growth for more than forty consecutive years. Now it is closer than at any other time in recent history to the great rejuvenation of the nation. I returned to the motherland in 1979 at a most opportune time, being able to witness and take part in this miraculous economic growth that is unprecedented in human history. The educational needs of the times gave me the opportunity to set up the China Economic Research Center (now the National School of Development) at Peking University with a few like-minded friends in 1994. Since then, it has been driving China’s modernization in economics education, as well as the localization, standardization and internationalization of economics research, at the same time engendering the propensity for combining academic research with policy research, making the school one of China’s most prestigious think tanks in economics. As a result of the school’s success, which elevated my status in the area of economics, I was appointed in 2008 to the position of senior vice president and chief economist in charge of development policies at the World Bank. These were acknowledged to be the highest positions in the world for an economist, and which, prior to my appointment, had only been occupied by well-known economists from the United States and Europe. During my tenure at the World Bank, I noticed the sharp contrast between China’s economic boom and the less robust growth of other developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, which, under the guidance of Western mainstream theories, have been unable to escape poverty or the middle-income trap. This gave me the confidence to break free from the paradigm of “learning from the West,” which was commonly accepted as dogma among intellectual elites in developing countries. After completing my term at the World Bank, I returned to Peking University and founded the Institute of New Structural Economics to promote independent innovation in theories for new structural economics based on China’s own experience in economic development. The results of my research based on China’s reform and development experience have also given me the chance to speak at the world’s top-notch academic platforms, such as Cambridge University’s annual Marshall Lectures on economics and Yale University’s annual Simon Kuznets Memorial Lecture on economic development. Over the years, I have received honorary doctorates from ten universities in Europe, North America, Hong Kong and Macau. I was the first Chinese economist to be elected both as a fellow of The World Academy of Sciences for the Advancement of Science in Developing Countries (formerly the Academy of Sciences for the Developing World and the Third World Academy of Sciences) and a corresponding fellow of the British Academy. Most importantly, on the 40th anniversary of China’s reform and opening up, I was honored to be recognized as an explorer of reform and was one of a hundred people to be awarded a medal with the title of Reform Pioneer by the State Council of the Chinese Central Government. For a person to accomplish anything, it is necessary for that person to be in the right place, at the right time and possess the support of the right people. Growing up and living in mainland China during its reforms and opening up means we are in the right place for developing our careers. The growing prosperity of the motherland has given many individuals such as myself the right timing to fulfill our dreams. Of course, having the support of the right people is paramount. When I was in Taiwan, my parents and my elder siblings scrimped on their expenses so that I could go to school. Many teachers and superior officers gave me encouragements that drove me to excel. After returning to mainland China, it did not matter if I was studying at Peking University, getting my PhD in the United States or coming back to work in China after having received my doctorate, I was always lucky to have many teachers and officials who looked after me and helped me kick-start my career. At the same time, I have the unconditional support of a group of dear friends; we know each other well, we understand each other perfectly and we constantly learn from each other. I am fortunate to have colleagues at work who are always ready to share everything with me through both the good times and the bad. And I am blessed to have my young ambitious students to walk hand in hand with me toward the bright future that awaits us. Last but not least, I would be nothing without the love and understanding of my wife and our two children, who have had to overcome many difficulties in order that I could achieve my aspirations. I reflect now at my past, from the times when I was young and melancholy about the future and questioning the grand scheme of things, until today, when I have reached the age of being able to do what I want without exceeding the rules as Confucius described. My life on both sides of the strait has experienced some waves; fortunately, I have survived. If I have achieved anything so far, then there are too many people to whom I owe my sincere gratitude. There are many kin, relatives and elders who were kind to me and had helped me when I was young, but I can no longer thank them in this life. There are also dear friends on the other side of the strait with whom I cannot meet for a drink and chat about old times. These regrets can only be expressed by these feeble words coming from the heart of someone who, after forty-three long years, has not forgotten his accent, old tales of his hometown and the aspirations of youth. Going forward, in the new world order of great changes unseen in a century, I will ignore my old age and keep working, as “the spring silkworm does not stop spinning until it dies” (from famous poem Untitled by Tang dynasty poet Li Shangyin). I will continue to do everything within my ability to help the motherland achieve the goal of national rejuvenation. This I promise as the only way I can repay the many relatives and elders, teachers and friends, who have cared about me, looked after me, encouraged me and supported me during all these years. N.B. Some of the hyperlinks, especially to Wikipedia articles, are only for cursory reference to help those readers who may not be familiar with the subject. It should be noted that there is no guarantee that Wikipedia articles are either accurate or unbiased. Readers who are interested should conduct independent research from more reliable sources. Last message from Prof. Lin: Dear Peter, This is just fabulous! Thank you very much for your generous support in translating this personal reflection ... I would like to hear more of your stories as well. Hope that we can meet in person someday soon.
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