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Trade War23/7/2018 Also posted at Quora
Read also "Who will win the trade war?" Almost everyone gets the trade war wrong. One of the most important elements of American supremacy is the US Dollar hegemony. The hegemony is gained by virtue of America’s unparalleled military power, and the rule that oil must be purchased with the US dollar—the Petro-Dollar. It basically allows America to play the game at a great advantage. Most countries do not have sufficient oil to fuel its economy, and therefore must earn or borrow the printed paper notes from America. Most projects of global supply chain and infrastructure for trade are not possible without capital in the form of US paper notes, and since America prints it while others have to earn it from America, the game of international trade cannot be fair to begin with. By the way, the trade rules are also by and large written by America. The abundance of easy capital for America doesn’t just create favorable conditions for American corporations in the global arena, it also attracts more brains to America, feeds an ever expanding military industrial complex, provides the means to punish anyone who does not say uncle, while enjoying impunity for the misuse of its power. The military industrial complex in turn supports technology development, owns the media as well as the narrative, and controls global resources and trade routes, sometimes inciting limited conflicts in foreign countries, creating more lopsided competition in favor of corporate America, which is owned by the elite at the top of the food chain. Such is the world and no one says life has to be fair. "Nature is merciless," Lao Tzu said it, and you can take that to the bank. Dollar Hegemony allows America to enjoy financial supremacy, trade supremacy, and military supremacy. Since America can create paper ‘wealth’ out of thin air and buy the world’s natural resources and manufactured goods with it, while the rest of the world must accept it, the country can basically go into unlimited debt with impunity. After all, it’s the people of America who are in debt, but the elite who owns the wealth. To service the ballooning national debt, the government can simply saddle the people with more debt, and create the money to pay the interest. Since the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, and it is also the most traded because of American trade supremacy, whatever amount of paper dollars created will actually help the local economy in America, whereas the rest of the world has to deal with the inflation. America is blessed to enjoy such power for a long period. The benefits however flow mostly to the corporate and the elite. Pundits complain about inequality, but the people of America support this. They elect their political representatives, who always approve saddling the people with unsustainable debt to finance the unlimited military budgets, endless wars, and unilateral sanctions, making enemies where there are none, while refusing to finance education, healthcare, and social benefits. The American people elect the representatives who implement globalization based on the cherished American capitalist ideals, filling the coffers of American corporations, while the American people most needing help are ignored. The elected officials, corporate elites, and military leaders are granted impunity, honor, and wealth by the people for their service. America is a great democracy. It is the government of the people. Why blame its government and politicians? Why blame corporations? Why blame other countries? The American people are ultimately responsible. To summarize, America’s power is based on its military supremacy which enforces the use of the US dollar for the purchase of essential resources and technologies, which allows America to create as much of the US dollars as it likes, which makes it even stronger in technology and trade, which makes its military even more powerful, which allows the creation of more US dollars to build more awesome weapons, which increases economic activities and GDP in America while creating inflation for the world, which causes those countries and peoples who cannot defend themselves to meekly say uncle, while the poor and jobless Americans swallow the lie that other countries are to be blamed. Why the trade war? China after forty years of hard work, paying with sweat and tears in a generation of sacrifice for American paper, selling its environment and its health, keeping its head down and biding its time in silence [韬光养晦] according to the advice of the venerable Deng Xiaoping, has arrived at a point where it has built up its ability to survive and thrive in the world. It has enough American debt that cannot be ignored. It has enough production capabilities and brains that will allow it to stand on its own two feet. It has the ability to build its own advanced weaponry that will repel any threat. It has built its own infrastructure essential for economic development and will now do so for other less developed countries, mostly without getting involved in other country's politics. China applies Confucianism in its foreign policy: "Do NOT unto others, what you do not wish others to do unto you." On the other hand, because of its economic success, China has become the first independent country (one with no American military base or soldiers stationed within its borders) with the strength, the wherewithal, and the will to present a serious challenge to the Dollar Hegemony. Politicians in Washington who are hostile to China know that this challenge of the Dollar Hegemony is extremely dangerous to the American elite’s wealth and privileges. Unfortunately, a hot war with China is impossible. It will not happen because these Washington politicians are not that stupid; they don’t want to lose everything, which would be the result of a hot war. There is always the danger that the American public might wake up one day and reckon that their elites are to blame, and their party will be over. The only war these Washington hawks can start against China is a trade war, while the American public is still swallowing the lie that China is to blame, while America can still create more dollars by saddling the people with more debt, while the dollars can still feed the military industrial complex, and while the dollars can inflate the American GDP and boost stock prices. What else can they do? America has lost a lot of its competitiveness playing for so many years in a system rigged in its favor. Printing ‘wealth’ in the form of dollars has been America’s greatest strength, but now China's development threatens to take that away. The trade war however will further damage America’s economy and cause more political turmoil in America. It will give China the impetus to speed up the usage of RMB for international trade. Others affected by the trade war will make similar efforts to speed up decoupling from the US dollar. The trade war will accelerate China’s development of essential technologies and products that require RMB or SDR payments, or a currency based on a common commodity such as gold. China will take the opportunity to encourage the development and usage of alternative banking systems not under American control, and wean the world from complete dependence on the US financial system. The US dollar will continue to be significant, but it will not be a hegemon. People will have true alternatives. Most people do not understand the survival skills of both the Chinese government and the Chinese people (my book talks about it). China will likely view this trade war as an opportunity to speed up necessary reforms. I’m guessing that is maybe why they are not so eager to settle. Trade talks are not moving forward. Besides, it is pointless negotiating with the current administration, which is doing a great job destroying America’s credibility. This loss of trust is most damaging and it is long-lasting. China has an old saying: "It takes ten years to grow a tree, but it takes a hundred years to build trust for a person." Trust is hard to establish but easy to lose. All business and trade depend on trust. Every independent country that trades with America will actively work towards decoupling, preparing for a day when America decides to unilaterally start another trade war. We can assume that all of America's 'allies' are thinking in that direction as well. Hopefully, in the not too distant future, America will not be able to print money with impunity or fund its military industrial complex with unlimited money. Unilateral American sanctions will not be effective. Its foreign policy will necessarily become less intrusive and more inclusive. The American people will learn to elect responsible politicians who will not enjoy impunity. Lying demagogues will be thrown from the Tarpeian Rock. Mass media will be broken up and editors made accountable for disseminating lies and half-truths on behalf of some hidden agenda. A benign and enlightened America may emerge, and perhaps we will have peace and harmony in the world again. It will then be up to the great nations and their responsible leaders to get together to work out a way for all humanity to share in the fruits of human development which has been built on the backs of all humanity. Sorry to offend Ayn Rand lovers; capital didn’t build civilization, people did, and they did that while consuming the food produced by the original wealth producers, the peasants. Taking care of each other, helping each other, and sharing with each other is the only way for humanity to survive and succeed on earth and beyond. Quora Comments: Anthony Tan: "... you’ve explained it in great detail. Thumb ups (sic), hope more people get to know what’s really going on in this world. Thanks." PM Response: "Which is why I think either Trump and his advisers are delusional to believe that they can wage trade war with China and the rest of the world, or Trump is deliberately accelerating the fall of the US hegemony. China has stopped talking with all the President’s men, and it looks like they want to give Trump a lot of rope to hang himself with. Meanwhile China has resumed doing business with North Korea. The fall of US hegemony is a much bigger deal for the world than North Korea dismantling their nukes. We may have Trump to thank. He may deserve a Nobel Piss Prize after all." Nini: "Such a great nickname for the hypercritical (sic) nobel peace prize Peter! You are a genius :)" Chris Marler: "Obama.. He has been the single US president that has had the most filibusters and rejections for anything he wanted to do." PM Response: "It’s American democracy, the best political system in the history of humanity. The people elected Obama and the people elected Trump. The people also elected the Congress and the Senate. This is the best we can do folks. Deal with it." Anthony Tan: "The public chose (sic) to remain blissfully ignorant, gets manipulated by the media and refuses to hold the government accountable. So both, in a way, deserves each other. Well, let's see if Trump will really get to drain the swamp." PM Response: "IT' IS actually willful ignorance. Most people accept the lies because it reinforces their prejudice. They’ll scream that Hillary is a warmongering harridan, not that she is not, but Obama was worse, and he lied to put himself in power. But somehow people are okay with that, and the delusional voters wept with tears of joy that their man was put in the place of power. MOST PEOPLE say Hillary is aligned with Wall Street and the MISC, not that she is not, but the people ended up electing a billionaire misogynist white supremacist lying moron because he is going to make America great again with more lying, bullying, and plundering. Somehow, the people believe that a capitalist who has not spent one minute of his life working for the public good will suddenly decide to serve the people of America. THE PEOPLE keep saying they’re all for human rights, freedom, the rule of law, and fairness, but they blindly support unlimited budgets for the MISC while they don’t have money for education, healthcare, and social benefits. The people want to drain the swamp, but they elect a bloviating billionaire pond scum with the IQ of alga to do it. What do they expect? WHEN THE capitalist elites destroy the American middle class because they don’t give a shit, the deprived underprivileged voting public accepts without question that China is to blame. Ask yourself this: how come people will say Trump, or the MSM, or the politicians are lying moronic imbeciles, except when the same say China is to blame, then they’re suddenly wise sages of America? “People who live and die in bullshit cannot comprehend flowers. Hypocrisy is a two-headed snake, it bites the hand that feeds it.” - Stone man with one eye. Chris Marler: "Money is the source of evil and greed." PM Response: "Money is but a tool of exchange. It’s the Western exploitative capitalism, the egregious bald-faced lies underneath it, and the ignorant masses that support it that makes money evil. It’s about time we wipe the lies from our head and start thinking about a new paradigm." Jake Liu: "IMO, US hegemony will not last. Because they have successfully brainwashed people (to believe) they are where they are because of freedom and democracy. But the reality is far more cruel." PM Response: "America indulges in hypocrisy, bald-face lies, coprolalia, bullying, unrestrained plunder, racism, torture, and war-mongering because it can. It’s a phenomenon known as hubris. Russia wants to trade with Europe, especially Germany, but Germany is a vassal of the hegemon. Despite all the lies you hear everyday from the mainstream media, Germany is still occupied territory and a vassal at best. Deal with the truth; it shall make you mad. Herodotus had warned about the human lot 2,500 years ago but don’t expect the proudly ignorant American public to learn. A string of good fortune is always followed by hubris and then nemesis. This is the Law of Nature. Jamal S.A.: "What China does it (sic) to bring down that dollar status? " PM Response: "China has been setting up various means to reduce USD dominance, but it cannot do so blatantly, and it cannot do anything openly to promote those alternatives. With the trade war in place, China will be able to do so with a very good excuse, especially when Trump started it. China will probably wait until Trump and his tariffs collapse on its own. These alternatives will be more valuable as more countries feel that they should not put all their eggs in the USD basket. China will also make these alternatives powerful if it can tie them up with essential resources and technologies. Suppose China creates something unique and desirable (e.g. BRI infrastructure, nuclear stations, defensive weapons, personal hovercrafts, robot butlers, robot chefs, robot maids, etc.), and says anyone will be welcome to enjoy the fruits provided they pay with RMB. Currently, world trade in USD vs RMB is probably 100 to 2, maybe more. If the ratio goes to something like 5 to 2, USD hegemony will be in trouble, and it will cause many problems with the American empire. Without hegemony, Americans will have to work for a living, and it will not have the funds for its military. It’s like a three legged stool with one leg weakened. The whole thing will collapse if someone sits on it. Jamal S.A.: "I am not believing in another single global reserve currency. There shall be a basket of currencies." PM Response: "The current dominant socio-economic system of the world is based on fundamental lies. We can try all we can to reform currency and banking, but eventually things will break down because of these lies. If human beings want to have a better world, we need to take the red pill and wake up from our stupor. The new world will need a new paradigm. Money will still exist but it will not be powerful or will it be desired. Money will return to being a tool rather than the goal of human greed. Human aspiration will be lofty and no longer include the accumulation of lucre. We will not be worrying about people gaming the system or banks playing havoc with derivatives. We will have no fear of robots and AI taking our jobs. My book talks about all these." Bao D. Nguyen: "I blame Jesus, the evil god." PM Response: "Jesus of Nazareth never traveled outside of Judea, and he was only one of the many Jewish sects that wanted to make some sense of their silent YHWH in the face of physical and spiritual destruction of the Jewish people by the Roman Empire. People made up the rest. If you want to find blame, blame it on the voting public of the best democracy in human history. Should I quote George Carlin? "Everybody complains about politicians. Everybody says they suck. Well, where do people think these politicians come from? They don't fall out of the sky. They don't pass through a membrane from another reality. They come from American parents and American families, American homes, American schools, American churches, American businesses and American universities, and they are elected by American citizens. This is the best we can do folks. This is what we have to offer. It's what our system produces: Garbage in, garbage out. If you have selfish, ignorant citizens, you're going to get selfish, ignorant leaders... So, maybe, maybe, maybe, it's not the politicians who suck. Maybe something else sucks around here... like, the public. Yeah, the public sucks.” Steven Mak: "The best answer I have read regards to the US and China." Vincent Ng: "peter man that was a succinct and great article, keep it up. hope to read more of your articles."
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American Cheating Correspondence11/7/2018 Hi Susan,
My point is I'm not sure the autocrats are blind, I'm more inclined to believe that they are complicit. As for Congressmen and other elected officials, they may be ignorant, but the people have elected them into office. They represent the people and supposedly act on their behalf. Actually, they are the people. The problem is not so much that autocrats are blind and Congressmen are ignorant, but that the people have elected them. Nothing will change until the people realize that they themselves are the problem, and then do something about it. If the system has a problem, then the people will have to change it. Blaming government, blaming Trump, blaming Russia, and blaming China will not help. But I am Canadian and ethnic Chinese, who am I to talk American politics? I'll let George Carlin speak instead: "Everybody complains about politicians. Everybody says they suck. Well, where do people think these politicians come from? They don't fall out of the sky. They don't pass through a membrane from another reality. They come from American parents and American families, American homes, American schools, American churches, American businesses and American universities, and they are elected by American citizens. This is the best we can do folks. This is what we have to offer. It's what our system produces: Garbage in, garbage out. If you have selfish, ignorant citizens, you're going to get selfish, ignorant leaders... So, maybe, maybe, maybe, it's not the politicians who suck. Maybe something else sucks around here... like, the public. Yeah, the public sucks. Best wishes,
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American Cheating Correspondence11/7/2018 From retired educator Susan:
I really appreciate that you took the time to write that intelligent, perceptive message. BTW, my husband is a Mason, and this ancient brotherhood has as a symbol..."the seeing eye." I live in a society that is so ignorant- as the schools are decimated and the media is owned by the autocrats-- that they are blind to what is happening. I think what he meant was this kind of ignorance in our congressmen (who are supposed to be leaders, but are tools in the hands of the masters who run our land.) I talk to people, good people, who are so buried in the bullshit, they do not see the flowers, or the truth.
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America saved the world in WWII8/7/2018 In response to a red-neck U.S. soldier pouring scorn on the polite and peaceful Canadians, trotting out the same old drivel about how the world should be grateful that America saved them in World War II:
For Americans who don’t know history, here is a quote from Sir Winston Churchill taken from British Parliament records June 10, 1943: “On the European front, the most important development of the past year has been the crushing offensive of the great armies of Russia against the powerful German army. Those Russian forces have destroyed and are destroying more of the armed power of our enemies—troops, planes, tanks, and guns—than all the other United Nations put together.” That was a few months after the Battle of Stalingrad and shortly before the Battle of Kursk was to begin. After the Battle of Kursk, Hitler was practically finished. He had nothing to stop Soviet tanks from rolling into Berlin. The Soviet Union had crushed the German war machine single-handedly with no direct help from their Western Allies, who had been promising a second front since after Pearl Harbor (mostly empty promises). That was in the fall of 1943, nine months before the Normandy Landings. Soviet Red Army did in fact enter Berlin, not the Western Allies. The Soviet Red Army also went to Manchuria and crushed the 700,000 man Japanese Kwantung Army (+200,000 subsidiary) within a 10 day campaign, contributing to Japan’s decision to an unconditional surrender. As for defeating the US military, it first happened during the Korean War, when poorly armed and poorly equipped peasant soldiers from China with no preparations and no winter clothing for -40 winter warfare had to brave unchallenged bombing from the air to drive the American soldiers back to the 38th Parallel. The American soldiers were so happy they got out of North Korea they characterized their retreat as advance in the opposite direction. Only some ignorant Americans would believe that they alone saved the world. Most Americans who have studied history know the truth.
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America has a Cheating Crisis7/7/2018 Insightful article from Medium.com on personal growth.
America Has a Cheating Crisis (Why Leaders Should Worry About It) The author with his penetrating intelligence and meticulous research has spotted a pandemic problem, but he is mistaken to think that 'Leaders' don't know about it. In fact the 'Leaders' are experts in it. People of the best democratic country in the world believe that they need their cheating 'Leaders' to worry about cheating. Maybe the people are cheating themselves. The people should be worried about their self delusions. Maybe the author should understand that 'the only socio-economic system that works' happens to reward liars and cheaters. Someday I'll explain that with the 'Fable of the Water Tower'. We're inundated with empirical proof all around us, but then we live in the Land of the Blind. How about the people change the paradigm and punish the cheaters, rather than give them impunity and reward them with wealth, station, and power. This self-righteous article about cheating starts with the insidious assumption that 'Leaders' are somehow virtuous, that they should worry about the cheating of the people and do something about it. People who live and die in bullshit do not comprehend flowers, and some people want to keep you buried in bullshit.
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Happy Independence4/7/2018 AlterNet celebrates Independence Day with this article: Did the Founding Fathers Lead the American Revolution for the Pursuit of Liberty — Or Personal Greed?
How enlightening! How delightful! How original! How daring ... and backed by rigorous academic brilliance. Actually, George Carlin (the secret prophet in our story) said this long ago: America was founded by slave owners who informed us, "All men are created equal." All "men," except Indians, n***ers, and women. Remember, the founders were a small group of unelected, white, male, land-holding slave owners who also, by the way, suggested their class be the only one allowed to vote. To my mind, that is what's known as being stunningly--and embarrassingly--full of shit.
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Michael Moore's Big Question1/7/2018 Michael Moore asks if we're prepared to die for democracy. But democracy gave us Trump, unlimited debt for endless war, boldface lies, and hypocrisy. Are we asking the right questions? Nothing will change if we don't open our eyes.
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